INTEGRACIÓN DE DATOS EMPÍRICOS Y MODELOS DE SIMULACIÓN: UN ESTUDIO DE LAGARTOS EN UN AMBIENTE AGRÍCOLA DEL MONTE EN SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22201/fc.25942158e.2026.2.1449Palabras clave:
Agricultura, ambientes áridos, herpetofauna, modelado de variables, remuestreo por bootstrapResumen
Los modelos de simulación surgen como una herramienta útil que nos permiten resolver algunas limitaciones inherentes a los datos empíricos, sobre todo cuando se tratan de ambientes difíciles de muestrear. El objetivo fue analizar qué variables ambientales y antrópicas afectan la abundancia de las especies de lagartijas en un ambiente Cultivado y No-cultivado, y comparar los resultados obtenidos con datos simulados. Se utilizaron datos empíricos, obtenidos mediante trampas de caída, y simulados mediante bootstrap. Se utilizó el método de Modelos Lineales Generalizados (GLM) para analizar los datos. Los modelos explicaron hasta un 47 % de la variabilidad en la abundancia, vs. el 27 % de los modelos empíricos. Las variables con mayor efecto en los modelos simulados fueron: cobertura de herbáceas, distancia a la ruta y frecuencia de aves. En los modelos empíricos las variables no tuvieron, en general, ningún efecto al explicar la abundancia. Los resultados no solo mostraron que las variables antrópicas asociadas a la agricultura tuvieron un efecto negativo a la fauna de lagartijas, sino también la utilidad de las simulaciones bootstrap para superar limitaciones de muestreo en estudios ecológicos. Este trabajo contribuye a futuros estudios centrados en el efecto de la actividad agrícola sobre la diversidad de lagartijas.
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