USO DE INDICADORES BIOCLIMÁTICOS PARA ANALIZAR LA PRESENCIA DE DESAJUSTES CLIMÁTICOS EN LOS ENSAMBLES LOCALES DE ANFIBIOS EN AMÉRICA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22201/fc.25942158e.2025.1.902Palabras clave:
Anura, Cambio climático, Conservación, Deuda climática, HylidaeResumen
Las especies se enfrentan de forma constante al aumento de la temperatura en las últimas décadas. Esto conduce a un desequilibrio entre las tolerancias térmicas de las comunidades de especies y la magnitud del calentamiento climático. En los casos donde las especies no logran adaptarse a los cambios climáticos, las comunidades exhiben una respuesta retrasada y, por lo tanto, acumulan una deuda climática. La información actual sobre estos desajustes climáticos se concentra principalmente en las comunidades de plantas, insectos y aves en regiones templadas. Aquí, examinamos la variación del desajuste climático en 80 ensambles de anfibios de la familia Hylidae en todo el continente americano. Para nuestros análisis, calculamos el desajuste climático para cada ensamblaje como la diferencia entre los índices de temperatura de la comunidad (ITC) y las temperaturas históricas promedio tanto para los valores máximos como para los mínimos. Utilizando modelos mixtos lineales generalizados, evaluamos un conjunto potencial de variables predictoras ambientales que impulsan los desajustes climáticos. Las tendencias en las respuestas de los ensamblajes eran visibles y variaban según los sitios. Los valores de desajuste climático negativo se concentran en ensambles en regiones tropicales sugiriendo que en estos sitios las especies pueden enfrentar dificultades para adaptarse a las temperaturas crecientes, por lo tanto, podrían tener intervalos térmicos más bajos. Los ensamblajes en zonas templadas y subtropicales mostraron desajustes climáticos positivos, lo que sugiere un menor riesgo de extinción hasta el momento. Sin embargo, de todas las variables probadas, solo la latitud absoluta, la elevación y la velocidad climática pasada explicaron el desajuste climático para la temperatura mínimo. Estos resultados podrían sugerir que la escala de nuestra investigación fue demasiado gruesa, por lo que sugerimos que se realicen análisis adicionales a escalas regional y local, así como investigación adicional sobre la compleja naturaleza del retraso climático y las variables que dan forma al efecto de las dinámicas de retraso.
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